2026 predictions - and 2025 review
Each year I speak to a few broadcasters about my predictions for the year ahead - and review my predictions for the year that has passed. And in preparation for that process, I write this blog post.
First up, I’m giving myself maybe 2.5/4 for my 2025 predictions.
2025 Predictions Review
The return of the small car
Not only have new smaller electric cars proven a hit with the media and reviewers, they seem to be catching the imagination of the public. The Corsa and Mini Cooper are in the top 10, and the Renault 5 and Dacia Spring have been strong performers. Now we also have the Hyundai Inster, BYD Dolphin Surf, and Leapmotor T03. And more EVs are starting to appear in smaller, non-SUV formats, with hatchbacks, saloons and estates - my favourite.
Result: Tick!
We take learning seriously
I really thought 2025 would see a turnaround in investment in training and development from both individuals and most importantly, corporations. We may yet find out that has been the case, as it takes a year for the numbers to appear from the Department of Education. But the signs aren’t good. 2024 investment was a ten year low and continued the long term trend of decline.
At some point this has to turn around: we simply don’t have enough people with the skills we need to fill the gaps we have. And the state cannot fill those gaps alone.
Result: A disappointing fail!
AI (yawn) Agents
I predicted AI would be in everything (tick) and that AI agents would be all the rage (tick). Not the most exciting prediction, but accurate.
Where we haven’t seen the progress I expected is in the application of AI agents to life admin, but it’s clearly coming. I’ve seen a few different AI personal finance start-ups, for example.
Result: Tick!
Work is all about When not where
I predicted that in 2025 we would start having serious conversations about more flexible working hours. Not total work time but when you start and finish. We all have different body clocks and are more or less productive at different times of the day. If we truly care about productivity not presenteeism, we should optimise people’s working days for this.
The weird thing with this one is that while I don’t see much evidence of this conversation happening, when I spoke to a group of HR people about this, they told me it’s old news and already happening! Clearly some disconnect here. My suspicion is that we have different benchmarks for how radical action needs to be in order to qualify. I certainly don’t believe the majority of workers are being asked about their body clocks and when would be the best time for them to start and finish to optimise their productivity.
Result: Half a tick. Clearly there is some movement.
Overall then, not bad. As usual, my get-out-of-jail-free card is that I don’t think I’m wrong about the what but only about the when.
On to 2026…
2026 Predictions
Infrastructure Boom
Something that came out of some research that I did on the future of rural communities in 2025 but which seems to connect strongly with a lot of international news: we have underinvested in infrastructure for too long. Not just in the UK but internationally (see: German bridge collapses, US roads and water etc). This is a particularly acute problem when climate change is putting our infrastructure under new strains. The result - affordability be damned - is that governments around the world are going to have to spend big on renewing critical infrastructure: transport, energy, water and more.
As noted by the Abundance Agenda podcast recently, there are some fascinating corners of cross-party support for getting us building again. And failing systems are a big vote loser - in Germany the far right is campaigning on ‘state failure’. This may be something even our Reform-leaning politics might be able to commit to.
Start-ups are the new grad scheme
The impact of AI on graduate recruitment is largely unproven so far. The big headlines in 2025 about the dramatic fall in numbers ignored the fact that the comparison point - the point at which ChatGPT launched - was also the moment of a record high in graduate job numbers. Any fall since is really just a return to trend.
Nonetheless, many of the big recruiters are cutting numbers and it’s hard to see how there won’t be less need for junior staff in accounting, law, consulting and more. So where will these highly skilled grads go? Perhaps the best place to start your career will not be in a big corporate but out on your own. It’s much easier to start a business now than it was 20 years ago when I started my first.
The analogue revival continues
The more things go digital, the more we crave the real, the visceral, the natural. Things we can touch and feel. We’ve seen it with music and the return to vinyl. We’ve seen it with the rise in popularity of hiking and outdoor pursuits. And most recently we’ve seen it in a return to drinking amongst young people, possessed by a false nostalgia for the pre-smartphone, pre-social media days.
In 2026 this trend will continue, and cash might be one of the beneficiaries as people seek more analogue ways to transact. Not just your holdouts and your tax-dodgers, but maybe some more hipster places might decide that transacting in cash is more in keeping with their analogue, community-led vibe.
Will I be right about any of this? Find out in 12 months…
A note on predictions
It might surprise you to learn that futurists don’t do that much predicting. Or at least not making singular predictions for the short term. We spend more of our time exploring possibilities and helping clients work out how to act in the face of multiple scenarios - picking the path that optimises the chance of success. Predictions like this are a bit of fun really.