What to expect in 2023
If you're reading this, maybe you've already seen my on Sunday Brunch, or heard me on Pienaar's Predictions talking about the year ahead. In preparation for those things, I wrote down my thoughts about what might be coming and I thought I would share them here.But before I get to predictions for the year ahead, what did I get right or wrong about 2022?
2022 Review
Self-employment
I really thought we'd see a return to the upward rise in the solo self-employed in 2022, continuing the decades long trend. But a range of factors seem to have prevented it.COVID caused a lot of people to batten down the hatches. Some changed the way they record their income to access government support. Some were too sick to work. Some decided to retire early. And some jumped into full-time work as a safety net.Brexit reduced the number of self-employed European workers, particularly in the construction trade. And the general state of the economy/world was not exactly conducive to new ventures. And a lot of small ventures probably went under.In my defence, it looks like I wasn't the only person surprised by this.
Food
I had two food predictions: that wealthier people will increasingly be focused on fresh and nutritious cuisines like Pacific Rim and Nordic styles. And that we would see the beginnings of a backlash against the wave of ultra-processed plant-based foods.I think both of these predictions have been borne out, to an extent. While sales of plant-based products across the board continue to grow, two numbers point to a level of scepticism about the ultra-processed categories, and our continuing desire for old-school proteins like meat.First, after initial enthusiasm, sales of plant-based meat alternatives have dropped off sharply in the US, leading Deloitte to express scepticism about the overall market size.Second, figures show that in the UK, our meat consumption isn't falling in line with the increase in sales of plant-based alternatives. As one of my relations pointed out at Christmas, nut roast is fine on its own, but it's even better as an accompaniment to turkey.Meanwhile we've seen a boom in Filipino restaurants around London, and Poké is now everywhere.
AR
I predicted that we would see lots of new AR headsets launch in 2022 but none would go mainstream. 'Lots' might have been an overstatement. Depending on what you count as a launch, we saw a variety of devices at least get close to market (Vuzix Shield, Tilt Five, Lynx - probably about ten more available only on AliExpress).None went mainstream though. The hardware is still either chunky (Lynx) or lacks capability (Shield).More importantly, the software isn't there. No-one has released a good design language for mixed reality yet, one that seamlessly blends physical and digital. Until they do, the best hardware in the world won't make AR a success.
EVs
I predicted EV sales would continue to boom, and they have, though not quite at the same growth rate as before. Again, the big macro factors have likely slowed things - chip shortages, cost of living. In November, Battery Electric Vehicles hit 20.6% of total car sales rather than the 30% I put as an upper expectation.Still though, the direction of travel is clear.
Hybrid Work
I expected a continuing debate about what Hybrid Work means for both employers and workers in 2022, and yeah, that debate is raging on. It will be a few years before we have a really settled set of expectations and the systems and processes to make it work smoothly - and fairly - for everyone. Though a few smaller companies will undoubtedly get it nailed sooner.
2023 Predictions
So, a mixed set of results for 2022. All correct in direction I would say, but it a bit out on the specifics. As I always say, 'what' is easier than 'when', when it comes to making predictions. And the same could be said about 'how much'.On to 2023 then, what to expect? A few things to consider - mostly focused on tech because that's what I'm being asked about.
Technology: Robo-Dickens
Though I'm sceptical about the adoption of large language model technologies like ChatGPT in your average enterprise (lack of ability & barriers more than lack of desire), I don't want to downplay their impact. We'll be seeing a lot of them in the year ahead, particularly in the creation of popular culture. How many student plays at the Edinburgh Festival next year will have been written by ML? Will Dave Gorman do a collaborative performance with one?
Science: Applied Genetics
We've been waiting a long time for the fruits of genetic sequencing. Now they're starting to appear. The first genetically-targeted cancer treatments are showing real promise. We're ramping up trials of mass genetic screening for rare conditions in kids. There will be lots more news about this in 2023, though mass availability will take time. Right now, this is time-consuming and expensive work and 'productionising' it is a challenge of both technology and process: watch this space for a little thing I've written about 'deep healthcare'.In other science, don't expect a (useful) fusion reactor any time soon. Still many years away.
Metaverse: One More Small Step
I don't think we'll see the big metaverse breakthrough in 2023. It's too early for the hardware, looking at the latest designs. And I've still not seen a compelling generic user interface for mixed reality. Plus, the economic environment isn't great for big new launches. Suspect Apple etc might wait for a little more optimism, even if they had some tech close to ready, rather than rushing it out.But we will see more experimentation, more new launches, more Kickstarters, more standards, all building out the ecosystem.
Flying Cars: Commercial Service?
2023 was the year when lots of companies said they would be launching commercial flying car services. OK, you have to stretch the definition of 'flying car' to include 'scaled up toy drones', which some would argue is more like a helicopter. Nonetheless, we should have been able to ride in one of these devices in the next 12 months. I certainly expected we would. At least for a short distance, somewhere in the world (probably the Middle East). But check the newsrooms of the likes of Volocopter and Joby Aviation and it's all suspiciously quiet.At the same time, it feels like the infrastructure and the regulatory environment is being readied. Property companies are planning to incorporate eVTOL landing pads around city centres. Governments are sinking money into pilots and bringing together stakeholders.2023 might have been too ambitious, but these things are coming.