Future food industry – will we be making food in space?

In our #AskAFuturist series, Rich McEachran asks, “How feasible is it that we’ll be cultivating plants in space on a large scale by 2100? The science is there but the logistics isn’t… yet.” We also look at the idea of a ‘Bar of the Future’ in space.

Future food inventions

Once upon a time, an enquiry dropped into my inbox from our website. Would I be interested in contributing some thoughts about future bars in space to a marketing campaign for Ballantine’s whisky?There are some obvious examples from fiction that it is hard to get away from: Mos Eisley from Star Wars, and more recently the bar on Knowhere from Guardians of the Galaxy. But thinking practically I can see two very different visions of a future bar in space:

• The Miner’s Arms: a bar for asteroid miners who need a little R&R after a long day.
• The Spaceport Lounge: similar to an airport lounge for travellers going between mines.

Whether or not these bars will serve food remains to be seen. But will there be enough food in the future? Or do we need to consider the alternatives of growing food in space?

Will there be enough food in the future?

When we consider the prospect of growing food in space, Rich is right. We can grow plants in space, albeit it’s not necessarily the best environment to do so without some modification to those plants.While sunlight is plentiful, space is cold and dry. You’re more likely to be bathed in radiation than water. And there’s no gravity. Plants, like us, did not evolve to live and thrive in these conditions. But we can overcome them. Research is ongoing about how we best grow plants in this artificial environment, just as it is on Earth. But the principle is well proven.

Future food industry: feeding the population

With climate disruption threatening agriculture around the world, it’s worth asking the question of whether we could grow food in space to feed Earth’s population. Sadly, the answer is a fairly quick ‘no’.While the logistical problems that Rich refers to are easier going from space to Earth than vice versa, the particular challenges of growing in space mean that it’s probably not a viable location for growing food to feed the planet. Quite apart from anything else there is the issue of water.Plants need water to grow, in one form or another. We can bring water up from Earth but it is heavy and dense, and right now the cost per kilogram of payload is around £2200. That’s gonna be some expensive lettuce.We can mine ice from asteroids or from the Moon to water our plants, but even this is far from cheap when compared to water literally falling from the sky onto your crops. It might be viable to support a few astronauts. It’s not viable for feeding the general population.

What’s next for the future of food industry?

While the notion of bars in space seems entirely possible, the concept of growing plants in space simply isn’t sustainable, yet. For now. we should focus on planet Earth – and look forward to kicking back in the Spaceport Lounge as and when.

What’s in the future for food technology?

In my talk at Bucks New Uni on the future kitchen, I highlighted three trends: kitchens of the future will be adaptable, productive and smart.When I analyse the future of any given market, I use my Intersections process, which looks for connections between five macro-trends that are primarily driven by technology, and pressure points in any given market.

The future of kitchen appliances

Tomorrow’s kitchen needs to be a place that can be re-skinned and reconfigured for different people’s needs over its lifespan. If technology can deliver an advantage then someone will deploy it, because the barriers to doing so are falling all the time, just as the competitive drivers rise. Digitally re-skinnable units? Super-hard new-material surfaces? There are many options.Sat in my own kitchen right now, I’m close to a voice assistant (Amazon Echo), a Wi-Fi connected speaker (Jam Audio Symphony), a robot vacuum cleaner (Vorwerk Kobold VR200), programmable, touch-screen driven ovens, as well as various other bits of tech. This isn’t me showing off, this is increasingly the reality of the modern, middle-class kitchen: automation, and internet connected devices.Some of this existing technology has the potential to ameliorate the impact of the ageing body and mind on the ability of people to care for themselves. Voice-driven reminders and recipes, automation of challenging tasks (floor cleaning), self-programming smart ovens, smart induction hobs — much safer than gas, and probably more cost-effective in the long run.And it’s clear a lot can be improved just with better design: putting things at the right height, with sufficient light, for example.

How will design influence future food tech?

In my original research on the future kitchen, it was clear that there is a huge and growing care challenge, and a problem with housing for younger adults. Getting on the property ladder as a couple is difficult now, let alone solo. We’re seeing more people cohabiting with friends and family later in life. Many people have put one and one together to solve both problems.The problem is that the lives of the young and the ageing may be inherently incompatible. At least when trying to cohabit in existing housing stock. We keep different hours, have different expectations for behaviour. Living in close proximity 24/7 could be incredibly challenge with a lot of compromise.We also have a lot in common, of course. Food, for example.Perhaps the real design challenge is to create homes that support socialisation, support and collaboration around common areas — like the kitchen — but allow much greater separation in other areas.The productive kitchen is about making it a place where we grow food as well as prepare and consume it.Back to the Future (as usual) got there early with the ceiling fruit garden, but given the incredible groundswell of grass-roots development around this idea, I think it will be reality fairly soon.As I’ve written about before, the idea of a new appliance in your kitchen, the size of a dishwasher (or maybe even part of the fridge) that grows food rather than stores it is increasingly practical. LED grow lights are cheap, microcontrollers and internet connections ubiquitous, and appliances already contain all the pumps and valves that a hydroponics system might need.

Community in kitchen design

With more properties now private rentals, growing multiple occupancy, and a much more diverse range of social and cultural influences, people are going to want a lot of different things from limited space.Whether it’s a new tenant every three years, or multiple tenants in the same property, over the course of its lifetime the kitchen — a major investment expected to last a decade or so — is going to have to adapt.That means reconfigurable layouts, modular units, and perhaps smart surfaces that can be digitally reconfigured. Think coloured e-ink reflective surfaces (cheap, low energy) rather than the OLEDs as you have on your phone screen (too bright, too expensive to run).

A microcosm of modern Britain

Tomorrow’s kitchen is a fascinating microcosm in which to explore many of the macro forces transforming our world. As we look at trends like smart kitchens, productivity and adaptability, we see the social benefits they bring and the role future food tech has within them.

What will we eat in the future?

My goal is to answer other people’s questions on this blog. Questions like, “Will we really eat insects in the future?” and, “How realistic is it that fake meat will take over real meat consumption in the next 50 years? Check out the questions I have been asked already on this #AskAFuturist thread and add your own if you’re curious.Followers on my social media may know that last year, I was asked to design the ‘future pizza’. It was for the launch of the Big Bang Fair, a science, technology and engineering event for kids and young people at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham.We came up with some ideas and then we got together at a pizzeria in London and had them make our future pizza for a panel of kids to try.

Future ingredients: what will we eat in the future?

So, what’s so different about the future pizza? It has three main ingredients that make it different to your normal margherita. I chose all of them because they represent a possible solution to future challenges, where pressures like climate change intersect with trends in technology and taste.That’s not to say that these will be the answer for everyone or everything. But they are a great way to highlight some of the challenges we face, and the choices.

Cricket flour

The most controversial choice in our future pizza was the introduction of insects. Why put ground up crickets into a pizza dough?The first is about climate change. Some argue that insects are a much more efficient means of creating protein for human consumption than, for example, cows or even chickens.The second issue is about health. Insect powder is an incredibly rich form of protein, with 8mg of protein for every 10mg of insect powder.

Vertically farmed tomatoes

The second ingredient to note is vertically farmed tomatoes. These represent one possible answer to the multiple issues of land use, water consumption, pesticides, climate change, and food miles.Vertical farming means growing food in stacked trays inside a warehouse with a very carefully controlled environment. Rather than being grown in soil, the plants are usually fed nutrients directly through water or vapour.

Vegan cheese

For this experiment we used a vegan cheese made from almond milk. And it tastes like…cheese! This was perhaps the biggest surprise for me as I didn’t have high hopes for a fake cheese. But it grated like cheese, cooked like cheese, and tasted pretty good on our pizza.

The future of the meat industry

So, will the future be vegan, or will we be eating insects? I’d argue that the explosion of choice is a trend far bigger than veganism, but we’re seeing a lot of progress for the future of the meat industry.

Will the future be vegan? Understanding ‘fake meat’

In the last few years there have been two distinct crazes around what might be considered ‘fake meat’. The first is a group of entirely plant-based products designed to come closer to the real thing.The most famous proponents of this approach, Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods, have started with the ubiquitous burger. Both use a mixture of proteins, binders and natural colours to produce something with a texture and flavour that is at least analogous to the beef original.The second set of products is lab grown meat, produced by the likes of the Eat JUST and Memphis Meats – more US start-ups. This approach takes real meat cells and cultures them – i.e., gets them to replicate – creating ‘real’ meat without the slaughter of animals.

How veganism could affect what we will eat in the future

The rise of veganism comes down to three pressure points:

• Climate change: agriculture makes up more than one-fifth of all greenhouse gases
• Cruelty: there is a rising number of people who simply don’t want to eat animals
• Cost: while fake meats are still expensive, real meat continues to be the most expensive item on the plate

Choice: a competitive market for alternatives

The future of the meat industry suggests that we will favour choice in the future – some for health reasons, others for animal welfare.To me it is pretty clear that average meat consumption in the UK is now on a long-term downward trend. This will be driven by a combination of our falling acceptance of meat consumption, the rise of good alternatives, and the compounding factors of health trends and climate awareness.So, what will we eat in the future? Honestly, I doubt insects will become part of everyone’s diet. Let’s remember that there are already large parts of the world where insects are entirely normal part of the diet. This isn’t some issue about whether they are edible or good for us.Likewise, I don’t see meat going away altogether. It will likely become a more expensive choice as volumes decline. And there will be many alternatives, not just fake meat. But in 50 years I’m willing to bet it will still be on the menu. It’s about choice.

Sustainable food production: can robots grow food at home?

In a future where supplies may be short, could we rely on robots to be the face of future food innovation and grow food for us at home? A few years ago a large food producer commissioned some research on the future food products. It was a PR exercise, designed to produce some interesting, light-hearted stories. Instead what came back was a pretty stark message: we as families and individuals will all have to produce much of our own food because that will be the only way we can produce enough.Needless to say, the research was never published. It wasn’t the sort of story they were looking for.I couldn’t tell you who the producer was, even if I could accurately remember: I was told about it in confidence a few years ago and never saw an actual copy. This is not a piece of rigorously qualified information. But it’s believable in the current context.

Future food innovation

Sustainable food production has become a hot topic. Today, globally, we produce more than enough food to feed everyone — enough for 12bn people according to the UN World Food Programme. But since much of it is fed to livestock (and because we let money get in the way of keeping people alive), we don’t manage to feed all 7bn. In a few years time the population is likely to peak around 9bn. Unless we produce an awful lot more food (twice as much by some estimates) or all cut the amount of meat we eat (the trend is going in the other direction as large economies like India and China develop), we are going to have even more serious problems feeding everyone.Closer to home there are issues of food security and self-sufficiency. According to a report by the House of Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee last month, the UK has become steadily less self-sufficient over the last twenty years. We now produce just 68% of the food that could be grown here — the rest is imported. Given the current levels of political instability, and the growing effects of climate change, it seems unwise to have so little control over feeding our own population.In a local context, there are two questions to address: what we eat, and how we produce it. The former has all sorts of answers from the prosaic to the unpalatable (for some). The simplest answer is that we all go vegan, but the simplicity of this answer exposes why it won’t happen: human beings are creatures of desire more than logic. Even if some Californian fad for veganism spread to the entire Western world, it is likely that the developing economies would want their days of unfettered carnivorous gluttony just as they want their chance to experience the economic growth that fossil fuels provided the West. And frankly, it’s hard to argue that they should abide by different rules just because we screwed the world up.

Future food products – artificial meat

We could continue eating ‘meat’ but in different forms: artificial, insects, etc. I think this will become a proportion of the mix and may eventually displace some livestock production (particularly beef, the most resource intensive). But it’s going to take time.In the meantime we’re back to that question of production: where does our food come from? There seems to be a growing trend for grow your own. I’m not ahead of the curve on this: just look at the column inches and airtime devoted to gardening, or the waiting lists for allotment spaces. For more insights into future food innovation, check out the IncredibleEdible project in Todmorden or the guerilla gardens springing up all over the place. There’s even an app to help you grow and share produce.But mainstream as this is (up to 5% of all fruit and veg is grown at home based on 2012 figures — the most recent I could find) it’s not at a level that will account for growing international competition for crops, changeable weather, and political instability.

Robots grow food as the latest source of sustainable food production

For this to change, growing at home needs to be easier. Automated. Like an appliance.This may not sound very ‘green fingered’ or organic. But the nature of our time-stretched lives these days (a cliché but a reality) and the fact that not everyone wants to garden, means it’s a reality if we all want regular crops of edible produce.Imagine this: an indoor appliance the size of a washing machine that feeds, monitors and returns regular crops of salad leaves, tomatoes, herbs, brassicas and potatoes, and does so with a minimal use of water and electricity. All you do is plumb it in and feed it with seeds and nutrients every now and again. It could even monitor your fridge and change the production rate to ensure it only delivers fresh produce as and when you need to restock.That’s the sort of thing that could become truly mainstream and account for a sensible proportion of our regular produce. And it’s entirely possible with today’s technology: hydroponics, LED grow-lights, cheap microcontrollers and cloud computing. It could be installed anywhere, even for those without a garden. Sure, it’s not as green as growing outdoors, but it is more reliable and less effort, and that’s what people want. And it’s certainly greener than shipping your vegetables halfway across the world.Could robots grow food for us? Absolutely. There’s another project to tackle then…####Note: After this post went out in my newsletter (sign up here to get posts like this one early), a number of people pointed out that projects like the Urban Cultivator have already tackled this challenge. I’m now wondering if a broken dishwasher can be cheaply recycled into such a device…